NOAA forecasts 55% chance of below-normal Caribbean hurricane season

What NOAA's 2026 outlook says

NOAA and the National Hurricane Center forecast a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with the six-month window already underway since June 1 and running through Nov. 30. The agency pegs the odds at 55% for below-normal activity, 35% for near-normal and 10% for above-normal.

The numeric range calls for 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. A developing El Niño is the main driver, shifting wind patterns in ways that tend to suppress Atlantic storm formation. Colorado State University released a separate below-average outlook earlier this year, aligned in direction though different in specific numbers.

As of June 6, no tropical cyclones are active in the Atlantic basin. Tropical Storm Arlene is spinning in the Eastern Pacific, which can still affect flight routing through the region.

Who feels the impact

Caribbean tourists, expats, digital nomads and long-stay travelers all sit inside the forecast zone. A quieter season lowers the odds of widespread disruption across the islands, but a single landfalling storm can still trigger flight cancellations, ferry shutdowns, power outages and evacuation orders for any given destination.

NOAA and the NHC both stress that a below-normal season isn't a safe season. Island-specific risk depends on storm tracks no forecaster can pin down in June.

Practical steps before booking

No special hurricane-season permits or fees attach to this forecast. The action items are personal and financial:

• Monitor local weather alerts and NHC advisories through the season.
• Keep flexible booking terms on flights, ferries and accommodation.
• Confirm whether travel insurance covers named-storm disruptions, mandatory evacuation and trip interruption before purchasing.

Insurance pricing can soften when seasonal forecasts skew quieter, though insurers weigh destination, dates, trip length and coverage terms more heavily than NOAA's seasonal outlook. That pricing effect is a market response, not an official policy link.

Read our full Caribbean guide for the complete picture and check ongoing visa updates for related travel advisories.